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The Three Horizons Model Explained

How to Plan for Long-Term Change in Contact Centres Post-Covid-19
How do I spend time thinking strategically to get past Covid-19, when I don’t have time to think about anything other than getting my business through today?
Right now, business leaders in the contact centre world are facing some of the toughest challenges they’ve ever faced due to Covid-19.

With so much to think about to ensure that operations are carried out successfully today, the pressure of considering what will happen next week, month or year is building, making it even more difficult to prioritise short, medium and long-term goals.

In the midst of the Coronavirus pandemic, contact centre leaders need to learn to think differently in order to adapt to this ‘new normal’ and continue reaching desired goals and achieving long-term growth.

But how can you do this effectively and in a focussed manner?

To make sure that the right focus is being given to your strategies and goals during these changing and challenging times, Bill Sharpe’s Three Horizon Framework is a highly useful tool which can be used to visualise, conceptualise and apply the right resources to business priorities.
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This guide will explain what the 3 horizon model is and how it can be applied to contact centres to help managers and directors allocate resources successfully.

Bill Sharpe’s Three Horizons Framework - What is it?

When significant change is taking place, dealing with the present is hard enough, let alone trying to imagine what the future of your business is going to look like.

Having worked closely with the people at the International Futures Forum, Bill Sharpe was one of the pioneers of the ‘three horizons’ way of thinking in business, in addition to Andrew Curry and Anthony Hodgson, which gives leaders a simple yet multi-faceted framework for thinking about the potential of the future based on what’s going on in the present moment.

The framework clearly maps out the three different ‘waves of uncertain change’ that can be seen in the present and that need to be addressed in order to continue moving forward.
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As such, the future of a business can be seen through three different ‘lenses’:
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Horizon 1 (H1) - What does it symbolise?

The first horizon of Bill Sharpe’s model aims to get leaders to analyse exactly what is going on in their business right now (the short-term), by looking at their traditional business paradigms and current operating assumptions.

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At this initial stage of the process, managers will need to focus on how stability is currently maintained within the organisation, as well as how the strategies you are currently using to drive present success and achieve goals are currently working.
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The trend of this first stage clearly shows that if the business continues as normal, it will reach a peak and subsequently start to decline at the moment of significant change.

If a leader does not recognise the need for change or address it, the business will no longer be ‘fit for purpose’ and will not continue achieving the desired results.

At horizon 1, you will need to consider the current:

  • Situation of the business (the existing context, conditions and stability).
  • ​Working assumptions, i.e. production, services, resources, staff, customers and capital.
  • Managers - When making decisions, what are they taking for granted right now?

Horizon 3 (H3) - What’s changing now and how can we create a vision of a viable future?

Rather than following straight onto horizon 2, the next stage focuses on the third trend of the horizon model, which involves identifying the current emerging changes that are causing a transformational shift from the present, forcing us to consider potential and preferred ‘futures’.
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Ultimately, this stage aims to analyse how we can transform after major global disruption, such as the Coronavirus.
Things you will need to consider at this stage:

  • What changes are currently taking place to form new business paradigms and ways of carrying out a range of human activities?
  • Is there a new invention or global problem that has you concerned?
  • What advice is currently being given by visionary leaders?

The trend in the three horizons graph aims to establish the importance of applying a new strategy in order to adapt to the changing world and ensure business doesn’t carry on as usual, but instead, grows alongside the change.

Horizon 2 (H2) - Responding to present change for a better future

The final stage of the horizons framework requires you to look at horizon two of the model, where you will need to reflect back on the working assumptions from horizon one and the emerging changes from horizon three.
Picture
 Source
Horizon two focuses on implementing change and change management in order to:

  • Analyse the current assumptions that are being challenged by change and resisting it (and therefore creating tension and failures within the organisation)
  • How to adapt to the change (by responding to resulting opportunities and risks)
  • How to build on change (how to develop change and sustain it within the organisation)

To do this, you a business leader needs to consider the following:

  • Which current working assumptions will be hit the hardest by the change? Which ones are the most vulnerable and which ones are being strengthened by the change?
  • How can I use the current changes to help create new products and services?
  • Could you replace any challenged models with other modern business models?
  • Are there any other production processes worth considering?
  • Do the changes require new customer segments?
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Once you’ve considered all of this, you then need to look at how you can create completely new business models, activities and innovations that can temporarily support horizon one and simultaneously begin the transition to horizon three.

As a whole, the Three Horizons framework helps leaders by getting them to make their assumptions explicit first, then they can explore the emerging changes in order to reframe what they think, what they want and what they are going to do.

This final step requires acknowledging history, looking forward at the possibilities and it involves creating actions that bridge from today to tomorrow, tomorrow to next week, and so on.

Summary - What to remember about the 3 Horizons Model

While there is a lot to think about when using Bill Sharpe’s Three Horizons Framework, it is important to consider the main points that you’ve taken from this exercise at the end of the process.
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To sum up, you will need to recap over the following:

  1. What current working assumptions are going to be challenged the most by emerging changes? I.e. the Coronavirus pandemic. Are any assumptions going to become obsolete due to the changes identified?
  2. What changes will provide the best opportunity for successfully adapting to the change?
  3. What innovations or initiatives will give your business the best opportunity of embracing change and moving forward?
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To get to this stage, you will need to consider each horizon from the framework first. A good idea is to think of your horizons as a type of diversified investment portfolio; if one horizon starts to over-perform or under-perform, you don’t want to have to re-allocate resources from a different horizon, otherwise the business will not adapt to change successfully.
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It’s important that you keep the balance of 70% (H1), 20% (H2) and 10% (H3), as shown in the first image above, to achieve sustainability and long-term growth within your business.

Implementing and managing change in contact centres - Specialist bespoke advice

At Saines Business Consulting, the Three Horizons analysis framework is viewed as a highly effective tool for contact centre leaders to address the current impact of the Coronavirus pandemic on their organisation as a whole and to recognise how it is affecting both employees and customers.

By failing to address this, your staff may not be able to carry out their job in a different way to what they’re used to and customers won’t have the support tools they need to effectively communicate their issues during these difficult times. This will then have a negative impact on your business as a whole, meaning it could become ‘unfit for purpose’.

In order to successfully adapt to Covid-19 and the ‘new normal’, you will need to consider your three horizons and utilize a change management specialist to help you carry out the project successfully.

David is a certified Prosci®️ Change Practitioner that can help your contact centre implement a bespoke change management plan that will help your business allocate resources successfully, adapt to the ever-changing climate and plan for long-term growth.
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To find out more and to receive tailored advice based on your contact centre and its needs, simply get in touch today, obligation-free. Alternatively, take a look at our related articles for further information.

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  • Home
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  • Resources
    • The Importance of Change Management in Contact Centres
    • The Three Horizons Framework Explained
    • How Contact Centre Leaders Can Adapt to Remote Working
    • 3 Things to Consider When Integrating Chatbots
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